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ADVANCES ON DETECTION AND PROJECTION OF IMPACTS OF HUMAN ACTIVITY UPON CLIMATE CHANGE OVER EAST ASIA AND CHINA

ZHAO Zongci, GAO Xuejie and XU Ying

National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China

ABSTRACT

For the last several years, Chinese scientists paid more attentions to the detection and projections of the human activities on climate change over East Asia and China. The researches of the human activities focused on the human emissions and land-use by using the Chinese models such as GOALS/LASG, NCC95, RegCM/EA, RegCM/CN and TEACOM. Some other models from the CMIP2 and DDC of IPCC were also used to investigate the projections of climate change over East Asia and China for the 21st century.

The investigations for the 21st century have indicated that the changes of annual temperature over East Asia and China in 2100 might be 4.9 with the range of 2.0-9.0 as projected by 27 climate models. The changes of annual precipitation in 2100 might be 68 mm with the range of -120-240 mm.

In future, the researches will be concentrated on both man-made and natural climate changes together and narrow the uncertainties.

Key words: climate change, human activities, climate modeling, East Asia and China

I.  INTRODUCTION

For the last five years, Chinese scientists paid more and more attentions to the impacts of human activities on climate change in the globe, East Asia and China (Zhao, 2001; Zhao et al., 2002; Shi et al., 2002). The researches concentrated on the developments of the global climate system models such as GOALS/LASG (Wu et al., 1996, 1997; Yu et al., 2000; Zhang et al., 2000) and NCC95 (Ding et al., 2001) which have been used to the investigations of the human activities (Guo et al., 2001; Xu et al., 2002; Ma et al., 2002). Several regional climate models such as RegCM/EA, RegCM/CN and TEACOM also used to study about the human activities (Luo and Zhao, 1997; Chen and Fu, 2000; Gao et al., 2001; Fu, 2001). Some other climate models of the CMIP2 and IPCC 2001 such as CCC, CCSR/NIES, CSIRO, DKRZ, GFDL, HADL, NCAR and YONU were also employed to the studies the impacts of human activities on climate change over East Asia and China (Zhao and Xu, 2002; Zhao et al., 2002). The designs and simulations of the models included the human emissions as the scenarios 1% increasing, greenhouse gases (GG) plus sulphate aerosols (GS), and SRES projections. For the recent years, several investigations concentrated on the detection and projections of climate change over East Asia and China for the 20th and 21st century by using the AOGCMs and EBMs (Wang et al., 2001; Gao et al., 2001, 2002; Zhao and Xu, 2002; Xu et al., 2002; Ma et al., 2002). Besides, the investigations also focused on the land-use, Three Gorgies and the effects of the black carbon aerosols (Zhao and Luo, 1997; Luo et al., 2001; Fu et al., 2002) 

 

II.  SCENARIOS OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE OVER EAST ASIA AND CHINA DUE TO THE HUMAN ACTIVITIES

More and more researches of Chinese scientists focused on the impacts of human activity upon the future climate change over East Asia and China by using the climate models since 1990s. Table 1 summarized those investigations. The warming of 0.7-5.5 for the annual mean temperature over East Asia and China as simulated by about 40 climate models (about 10 Chinese models among them) for the doubled CO2 (2×CO2) to compare with the present time (1×CO2) is noticed in Table 1. The mean warming in East Asia and China is about 2.8. The precipitation over East Asia and China might increase by about 11% with a range of 5 to 20% due to the doubled CO2. 

Table 1. Investigations on Projections of Future Climate Change over East Asia and China as Simulated by the Climate Models since 1990s (based on Zhao et al., 2000; Zhao et al., 2001) (DT: change of temperature, DPr: change of precipitation)

 

Authors

Names of climate models

Characteristics of models

Designs of experiments on human activities

Climate change reaching the doubled CO2

 

 

 

 

DT()   DPr(%)

Zhao1989

GFDL, GISS, MPI,  OSU, UKMO

5 GCMsL2-L12, 60 m

1×CO2, 2×CO2

2.5       5

Wang et al.1992

IAP AGCM/MLO

GCM

L2, 4×5, 60 m

1×CO2, 2×CO2

2.0       +

Zhao and Hulme1993

GFDL, GISS, LLNL, MPI, OSU, UKMOL, UKMOH

7 GCMs

L2-L16, 60 m

1×CO2, 2×CO2

3.0       9

Zhao1994

7GCMs nested to a EBM

EBM with a box ocean of L47

GHG, CO2,O3

2.0       6

Chen et al.1996

 IAP AOGCM

AOGCML2, 4×5, L20

CO2 1%/a

3.6      10

Song and Chen1996

NCAR/CAMS CCM1

AGCM, L12, R15

1×CO2, 2×CO2

5.5      18

Li and Gong1996

NCAR/CAMS RegCM1

L14, 100km, regional model over China nested to  the AGCM/CCM1 (L9, T21)

1×CO2, 2×CO2

3.4      20

Wang et al.1996

NOA/OSU-GFDL, AOGCM

AOGCML2, 4×5, L5,

2×5

1×CO2, 2×CO2

0.7        +

Chen and Fu1997

NCAR/EAC RegCM2/TEA

L10, 60kmregional model over China driven by the CSIRO AGCM

CO2 1%/a

5.2        +

Zhao and Li1997

CSIRO, GCM5, GCM7, GFDL1, GFDL2, GISS, JMA, LLNL, LSG, MPI, NCAR, OPYC, OSU,  UKMO1, UKMOL,UKMOH,

AOGCMsL2-L18, L5-L20

 

CO2 1%/a, CO2

2.2        10

Zhao et al.2000

IPCC 1995

AOGCMs, L2-L20,

L12-L30

GHG, SO2

2.0

Guo et al.2001

GOALS/LASG AOGCM

AOGCML9 R15, L20

CO2 1%/a

2.1         5

Gao et al.2001

NCC/NCAR RegCM2,3/China

Regional model over China driven by the CSIRO AOGCM L16, 60km

GHG 1%/a, SO2

2.5        13

Mean

 

 

 

2.8        11

 

 

Fig.1. Changes of annual mean surface air temperature (a) and precipitation (b) in China due to a doubling greenhouse gases as simulated by the RegCM/China model (Gao et al., 2001)

 

Fig.2. Changes of numbers of days for both rainfall (a) and heavy rainfall (b) in China due to a doubling greenhouse gases as simulated by the RegCM/China model (Gao et al., 2001)


    As an example, Fig.1 gives the changes of both temperature and precipitation in China for a doubled CO2 experiment to compare with the present time (1961
-1990) as simulated by a regional climate model over China (RegCM2/China) driven by the CSIRO AOGCM. Due to a doubled CO2, an obvious warming of 2.0-2.5 in North China and a less warming of 1.5-2.0 in South China have been noticed in Fig.1a. Precipitation might increase in both Northwest and Northeast China due to a doubled CO2 (Fig.1b). The distributions of numbers of both annual rain days and heavy rain days are provided in Fig.2. Due to the greenhouse effects, the numbers of the heavy rain days over South China might increase significantly (Gao et al., 2001).

 

III.  DETECTION AND PROJECTIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE OVER EAST ASIA AND CHINA FOR THE 20TH AND 21ST CENTURIES

For recent years, the scientists have paid more attention to the detection of global warming in the 20th century and the projections for the 21st century by using the climate models. Climate change over East Asia and China for the 20th century and 21st century have been calculated by using seven AOGCMsCCC, CCSR, CSIRO, DKRZ, GFDL, HADL, NCAR(Zhao and Xu, 2002). Chinese scientists of both Institute for Atmospheric Physics of China Academy of Sciences and National Climate Center of China Meteorological Administration have run their climate models (GOALS/LASG and NCC95) to investigate this issue. Table 2 summarized the investigations on detection and projection of climate change over East Asia and China for the 20th and 21st centuries. Those researches indicated an obvious warming of 0.5-2.4 /100 a over East Asia and China in the 20th century due to both greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols as simulated by nine climate models. According to the observed data of the 20th century in East Asia and China, a warming of 0.8 and 0.4 has been found, respectively. The detection provided some evidences of warming over East Asia and China in the 20th century by the human emissions. The calculations also indicated that the temperature over East Asia and China might increase in the 21st century due to the human activities. The warming range in 2030 might be 1.4-2.8.

Table 2.  Investigations on Detection and Projections of Climate Change over East Asia and China for the 20th and 21st Centuries

Authors

Names of climate models

Characteristics of models

(Periods of experiments

Linear trend of Temperature() in the 20th century

Climate change in 2030

DT()   DPr(%)

Zhao and Xu2002

CCC, CCSR, CSIRO, DKRZ, GFDL, HADL, NCAR

AGCML9-L21

     R15-T42

OGCML12-L32

3.74×4.5-1.8×1.8

(1900-2099)

0.50-1.45/100a

1.97-2.76    -4-4

     

Xu et al., 2002

NCC95

AGCM L16T63

OGCML30T63

(1900-2030)

0.81-2.40/100a

1.4      -2

Ma et al., 2002

GOALS/LASG

AOGCM, L9R15, L20

(1900-1999)

0.69-0.80/100a

 

Fig.3.  The time evolution of the temperature (a) (unit: C) and precipitation (b) (unit: mm/month) change relative to the years (1961 to 1990) over China as simulated and projected by the AOGCMs due to the increasing greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The observed change is indicated by the thick black line (Zhao and Xu, 2002).

    As an example, Fig.3 indicates the change of both surface air temperature and precipitation in China for the 20th century and 21st century to compare with the mean of 1961-1990 as simulated and projected by eight AOGCMs due to the increases of both greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. It is found in Fig.3 that the temperature as projected by the AOGCMs might increase by about 2.9-8.9 over China due to both greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols in the end of the 21st century. The most models of the AOGCMs projected that the precipitation might increase in the 21st century.

 


The changes of both observed temperature and precipitation over China during the 20th century are also presented in Fig.3 for the detection. The detection of temperature and precipitation over China for the 20th century such as anomalous correlation coefficients and linear trends has been calculated for the AOGCMs and the observations respectively. The detection noticed that the AOGCMs have the certain capability to reproduce the warming trends in the 20th century temperature change over China when driven by radiative forcing due to increasing greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. It means that some stronger evidences of detection

 

 

Fig.4.  The time evolution of the maximum temperature (a) (unit: C) and minimum temperature (b) (unit: C) change relative to the years (1961 to 1990) over China as simulated and projected by the AOGCMs due to the increasing greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The observed change is indicated by the thick black line (Zhao et al., 2002).

indicated that the warming of China for the last 50 years might be caused by both greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols which were from human activities. To compare with the simulations of temperature, the 20th century precipitation change over East Asia as simulated by the AOGCMs was less well (Zhao and Xu, 2002). 

The changes of extreme climate events due to human activities for the 20th and 21st centuries as simulated by the climate models have been calculated and analyzed. As an example, Fig.4 shows the change of both annual maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) in China due to the greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols as simulated by five AOGCMs (CCC, CCSR, CSIRO, DKRZ and HADL). The warming of 0.45/49a and 1.41/49a for the observed Tmax and Tmin (1951-1999) are noticed. To compare with the same period (1951-1999), Tmax and Tmin increased by about 0.61-1.01 and 0.78-1.22 due to the greenhouse gases or greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols as simulated by the models, respectively. The linear trends of Tmax and Tmin change due to the human activities in the 21st century are 4-5 (Zhao et al., 2002).

Besides, for the recent years, the IPCC new scenarios (SRES A1, A2, B1 and B2) have been used to project the climate changes over East Asia and China by the CCSR/NIES model. The projections in 2100 have been compared with several key paleoclimatic and historical climatic periods (Zhao et al., 2003).

Summarized above, the warming of both Tmax and Tmin has contributed to the temperature increased in the 20th century over East Asia and China, especially Tmin. Both Tmax and Tmin in the 21st century might be getting warmer than the 20th century as projected by the models. It means that the hot spells in summer over East Asia and China might be getting longer than before and the cold spells in winter might be getting shorter. It might cause some impacts on the agriculture and human health.

 

IV.  ADVANCES

Summarized those researches by the Chinese scientists, Fig.5 indicates the changes of both annual temperature and precipitation over East Asia and China in 2100 as projected by the recent 27 climate models and scenarios (IAP and YONU as CMIP2 simulations; CCC, CCSR/NIES, CSIRO, DKRZ, GFDL, HADL, NCAR, GCM7 and NCC95 with GG and GS; RegCM/CN with GG and GS; CCSR/NIES with SRES A1, A2, B1 and B2; and GCMs). The projections have shown that the change of annual temperature in 2100 might be 4.9 with the range of 2.0-9.0. The change of annual precipitation in 2100 might be 68 mm with the range of -120-240 mm due to the human emissions. Those amplitudes of changes might be similar to the Holocene Maximum.

For those researches of human activities did not consider the natural climate changes. In the future, the researches should investigate both man-made and natural climate changes together.

As we know, there are some uncertainties in the climate models, especially for the regional scales. The scenarios of the human activities might be changed by the countries. Chinese scientists will pay more attentions to investigate this field.

 

 


Fig.5.  Changes of annual temperature and precipitation over East Asia and China in 2100 as projected by 27 GCMs (unit: C and mm) (Zhao et al., 2003)


Acknowledgements: Pre-PDF project supported this research. Eight AOGCMs' groups (CCC, CCSR, CSIRO, DKRZ, GFDL, HADL, NCAR and GOALS/LASG) and DDC of the IPCC WG1 were very kind to provide the results of their models. The observed data were from P.Jones, M.Hulme, WANG Shaowu and GONG Daoyi.

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